公募基金与阳光私募基金经理的投资能力实证分析

摘要

我国公募基金与阳光私募基金的发展从20世纪80年代末至今得到了长足的发展。主要采用TM模型和HM模型对基金经理的选股能力和择时能力进行了对比分析,总体来看,私募基金经理的投资能力优于公募基金经理。当用成功概率法进行辅助性验证的时候,发现两种激励模式下基金经理对市场方向的预测和判断基本相当,公募基金经理还略胜一筹。分析结果,我国基金行业基金经理的投资能力不具备显著的差异,投资业绩的差异关键在于对仓位的控制以及策略的灵活性。%Chinese public offering fund and sunshine private equity fund got a rapid development since 20c80s.This article used TM model and HM model to compare and analyze the investing ability of different fund managers,totally,the ability of sunshine private equity fund managers are better than public offering ones.Then used success probability method for auxiliary verification,it found that the two has got a same forecast and judgement,even the public offering ones got better.It suggests that there is no obvious difference between the two,and the investing achievements depends on position control and strategy flexibility.