For the productivity project of oilfield development, especially making investment decisions for low-permeability oilfield and tertiary-oil-recovery project, only regular cash-flow method can be used to predict the project benefits because of the uncertain factors in the decisions. Thus the deviations maybe cause, so it is necessary to find out a more flexible method for the investment decisions. On the bases of the study results such as cash flow models, economic limits, physical option evaluation and so on at home and abroad, the cash flow and physical options have been contrasted and researched, and then the investment value model is established, where includes the intrinsic value of investment project and the value of physical options. Finally the evaluating model combining discounted cash flow method with physical options is presented, so a more accurate method for investment decisions has provided for the evaluation of the productivity project under uncertain conditions.%对于油田开发产能项目,尤其是在进行低渗透油田及三次采油项目的投资决策时,由于其中包含有许多的不确定因素,仅采用常规现金流量法预测项目的收益情况,可能会引起投资决策的偏差,需要运用更灵活性的投资决策方法.在国内外关于现金流模型、经济界限、实物期权评价等研究成果的基础上,对现金流和实物期权评价模型进行了对比研究,建立了包括投资项目的内在价值和实物期权价值的投资价值模型,给出了实物期权与贴现现金流量法结合的评价模型,为不确定条件下的产能项目评价提供了一个更准确的投资决策方法.
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