针对已有裂缝预测方法适用范围小、精度低、对高成本资料需求程度高的问题,以鄂尔多斯盆地华庆油田三叠系长63储集层为例,综合考虑地质静态资料和生产动态资料,提出了一种预测新方法.基于油田多种地质静态资料,得到岩性、沉积相、地层厚度、岩石破裂指数、裂缝发育强度5个约束裂缝发育的控制条件,应用多元线性回归分析方法,建立了裂缝发育的5种约束条件与裂缝密度关系的定量表达式,计算得到全区的裂缝密度体;根据井史、示踪剂、干扰试井及吸水剖面等生产动态资料,通过油藏工程分析方法综合判断出裂缝在平面上和纵向上的方向及分布范围,并结合数值模拟技术对裂缝密度体进行检验和定量校正,建立了既符合地质静态认识又符合生产动态的三维离散裂缝地质模型.数值模拟拟合验证表明,该裂缝模型拟合度高,具较高的可靠性和适用性.图15表1%In consideration of the limited adaptability scope,low accuracy and high demand of great cost data of existent fracture prediction methods,a new fracture predicting method was advanced by implementing geological static data and production dynamic data from the Triassic Chang 63 reservoirs in the Huaqing Oilfield.Five constraints,lithology,sedimentary facies,thickness,rock rupture index and fracture intensity controlling the development of fractures were sorted out based on the static geological data.The multiple linear regression method was adopted to work out the quantitative relationships between the five constraints and fracture density,and the fracture density property of the whole area was calculated.Based on production dynamic data of well history,tracer,well interference test and intake profile test,the direction and distribution of fracture horizontally and vertically were figured out by reservoir engineering analysis method.The fracture density property was verified and quantitatively corrected with numerical simulation,and a 3D discrete fracture geological model in agreement with both geological cognition and dynamic production performance was built.The numerical simulation shows that the fracture model has higher fitting consistency,high reliability and adaptability.
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