阿基诺三世上台之初即把菲律宾的国防重点从国内安全转为对外防卫，把南海政策从“大国平衡”转为“借美制华”，把南海油气开发政策从中菲合作转为独自开发。在挑衅中国南海主权的行为遭到挫败后，阿基诺政府彻底抛弃了与中国进行双边谈判的可能，把本国的南海政策与美国的亚太战略绑在一起。菲律宾国内的家族政治特征，以及由此产生的“小集团思维”，外加根深蒂固的亲美传统，是推动阿基诺政府南海政策转变的根本原因。但菲律宾国内叛乱分裂问题悬而未决，以及菲律宾国内对增加美国驻军人数的反对意见，限制了阿基诺政府南海政策进一步激进化。由于阿基诺政府的南海政策并未使菲律宾获得实际收益，并且阿基诺政府也深陷腐败案件，这为菲律宾下届政府调整南海政策提供了动力。鉴于阿基诺政府南海政策的僵化以及任期即将结束，中国应重点关注菲律宾下届总统的南海政策趋势，并需要在维护南海主权和适当向菲律宾释放善意之间取得平衡，帮助主张改善对华关系的总统候选人获得更多的政治空间。%At the beginning of his tenure,Aquino Ⅲ shifted the Philippine military's traditional focus on internal security away to external defence,adopted the South China Sea policy of using the U.S.against China and exploited the oil source of the South China Sea without China.When its policy suffered setbacks, Aquino administration refused to negotiate with China,but instead tying the Philippines'South China Sea policy with U.S.Asia-Pacific strategy.Family politics,group thinking and pro-American tradition are the basic reasons that promoted the change of Aquino administration's South China Sea policy.However,the ongoing insurgency and domestic opposition to U.S.army's new deployment hindered its policy's develop-ment.Given Aquino administration's South China Sea policy not making actual profit for the Philippines and many senior officials in Aquino administration facing corruption allegations,the next government in 2016 may adopt a new South China Sea policy.As Aquino government's South China Sea policy is ossified and its term is about to expire,China should focus on the trend of the Philippine next government's policy.In order to help presidential candidates who tend to improve relations with China get more political space,China also need to achieve equilibrium between safeguarding the sovereignty of the South China Sea and showing good-will to the Philippines.
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