基于云推理模型的武器装备研制风险评估研究

摘要

The weapon equipment development process is full of uncertainties and risks, therefore, the research into weapon equipment development risk is of great significance for achieving objectives of weapon equipment development.We define the concepts of weapon equipment development risk, introduce the cloud reasoning theory , build the cloud reasoning risk assessment model of weapon equipment development risk, achieve qualitative variables and quantitative variables mapped, and use an example to validate the model.%武器装备研制过程充满了不确定性和风险,因此对武器装备研制风险进行研究对于实现武器装备研制目标具有重要的意义.界定了武器装备研制风险相关概念,介绍了云推理理论,构建了武器装备研制风险的云推理评估模型,实现了定性变量与定量变量相互映射,最后,通过实例对模型进行了验证.