不确定性环境下消错决策方法的研究

摘要

针对不确定性决策问题，本文首先给出了错误的概念并提出本研究的两个假设前提，然后在此基础上引出错误绝对损失值的概念，根据错误绝对损失值构建错误绝对损失矩阵。进而构建了消错离心法、消错理想点法和消错投影法三种决策方法。为构建消错组合决策模型，采用Copeland法对上述三种消错决策方法进行组合。最后通过实例说明该方法的有效性和可行性。%In the study of Decision Making under Uncertainty ( DMUU), this paper puts forward two hypotheses and the concept of Error .Then the paper presents the concept of error-absolute-lost value and builds an error-absolute-lost matrix . Three decision-making methods as Error-Eliminating Centrifugation , Error-Eliminating TOPSIS and Error-Eliminating Projection are given .Finally, the paper combines the three methods by the meth-od of Copeland and builds a compound decision-making model .An example is used to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this model .