考虑存在取消预约情形的门诊预约能力分配策略

摘要

在现实的门诊预约问题中，已经预约的患者在接收医疗服务之前，有可能取消先前的预约，这会对医院的收益造成负面影响，如何在考虑患者存在取消预约的情形下，设计合理有效的能力分配策略来保证医院的收益，是一个值得研究的问题。本文针对具有提前预约和当天预约的门诊预约能力分配问题，在考虑提前预约患者可能存在取消预约行为的情形下，提出了一种提前预约患者和当天预约患者的最优能力分配策略。文中首先以医院的期望收益最大作为决策目标，建立了存在取消预约患者的医疗预约问题的马尔科夫过程模型，并给出了该模型的相关性质；基于所建立模型的特征，证明了对于任意的提前预约时段，存在提前预约患者的最佳数量，进而给出了提前预约患者和当天预约患者的最优能力分配策略以及确定该策略的精确算法；最后，通过数值试验说明了本文所提出的能力分配策略的适用性和有效性。%In the practical outpatient appointment problems , scheduled patients may cancelltheir appointments before receiving services , which has a negative effect on clinic revenue .It’s a significant problem to explore how to design a reasonable and effective capacity allocation policy considering the cancellation of appointment .In this paper , the capacity allocation problem of outpatient appointment which includes appointments in advance and in same-day is considered .Considering the situation that patients who make appointments in advance may cancelltheir appointments , an optimal capacity allocation policy is presented to determine the capacity allocation between patients who make appointments in advance and in same-day.For maximizing the expected revenue of clinic, the Markov process model considering cancellation of appointment is firstly constructed , and the relevant property is given .Furthermore , based on the model characteristic , the existence of the optimal number of pa-tients who make appointments in advance is proved for any appointment period , and the optimal capacity alloca-tion policy and algorithm of solving the policy are given .Finally, a numerical test is given to illustrate the practi-cality and effectiveness of the proposed capacity allocation policy .