城市CIS物理关联脆弱性的动态分析方法

摘要

Taking urban critical infrastructure systems (CIS)as the research object,this paper divides the physical network among three different types of critical infrastructures into individual level,medium level and system level,and then analyzes the urban CIS internal physical interdependency mechanism from the perspective of physical potential.According to urban CIS physical interdependency features,this paper researches manifestation of big system(Macro) from activities of critical infrastructure(Micro) by introducing a bottom-up research method named Cellular Automata(CA),and then using cellular connectivity,the states of norm cellular and transmission efficiency as indexes of vulnerability,estimates system vulnerability of different time points and takes the average weighted over a period of time as the final vulnerability value to implement the dynamic vulnerability assessment of urban CIS physics interdependency;Last,taking S city as an example,it verifies the reasonability and effectivity of this dynamic vulnerability assessment method,and the results also can provide the suggestions for urban CIS protection.%本文以城市关键基础设施系统(Critical Infrastructure System,CIS)为研究对象,将关键基础设施之间组成的复杂物理网络划分为个体层面、中观层面和系统层面三种类型,从物理关联势差的角度分析了城市CIS内部物理关联机理.根据城市CIS物理关联特性,引入元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA),以一种物理资源为主导建立模型,采用“自底向上”的方法,从微观关键基础设施活动推出宏观城市CIS表现.选取元胞连通性、元胞正常状态变化率和传输效率作为脆弱性评估指标,估算不同时间点城市CIS脆弱性的动态变化,实现物理关联脆弱性的动态分析,并运用加权平均值作为一段时间内城市CIS脆弱值.最后,以S城市为例,对物理关联脆弱性动态分析方法的合理性和有效性进行验证,评估结果为城市CIS保护提供支持.