山东省城市扩张规律及增长极限研究--基于边际土地利用计量分析

摘要

This paper takes the law of Shandong province urban expansion as a research object. With the help of the C-D production function, using the relevant data of 1984-2010, the paper estimates and calculates the MLU (margin quantity of land use). Then it constructs the margin analysis model. Through validation of assumption and function fitting, the paper analyses the ultimate time point, the value of Shandong province urban expansion by quantitative method, and then grips the law of Shandong province urban expansion.%以山东省城市扩张规律为研究对象，以C-D生产函数为工具，利用1984-2010年山东省二三产GDP、非农资本存量、二三产劳动力及城市建成区面积数据，估计并剥离出土地边际利用量，在此基础上构建边际分析模型，通过假设验证和函数拟合等方式，计量分析了山东省城市扩张出现的极限时点及其对应的城市规模，进而把握了山东省城市扩张规律。