长江流域工业化、城镇化和农业现代化协调发展的作用机理及综合评价

摘要

The promotion of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization (hereinafter, three Modernizations) is the inevitable choice in developing agricultural modernization road with Chinese characteristics. With an indexes system of three Modernizations, this paper used the PCA to measure the development level of three Modernizations based on the historical data of 40 cities alongside the Yangtze. Results showed: 1)The coordinated development level of three Modernizations was constantly raised;however, disequilibrium of development level among Upper Yangtze, Middle Yangtze and Lower Yangtze appeared clearly. 2) The coordinated development of three Modernizations have stair-step shape from east to west in Yangtze River. Most cities with high coordination degree are mainly in the Yangtze River Delta and some capital cities, while those with low degrees are mainly located in the major grain producing areas and ecological fragile areas.%实现工业化、城镇化和农业现代化（以下简称“三化”）协调发展，是推进我国“四化同步”建设的必然要求。本文首先从理论层面分析了“三化”协调发展的传导机制，其次通过构建区域“三化”协调发展水平指标体系，以2009-2011年沿长江40个城市的面板数据为基础，利用主成分分析方法测算了各区域“三化”发展水平，最后采用几何平均与算术平均调整的方法评估了流域“三化”协调发展水平。结果表明，长江流域地区“三化”综合水平不断提高，上中下游间发展不平衡；从区域差异来看，“三化”综合水平呈现东高西低阶梯状，协调度较高的地区多集中于长三角地区和部分省会城市，而生态较为脆弱的地区（如昭通、自贡、泸州、乐山、宜宾等）以及部分粮食主产区（如滁州、岳阳、荆州、黄冈等）的“三化”水平仍处于较低发展水平。