In order to improve the accuracy of water inrush risk prediction of coal seam floor, according to the existing water inrush data of surrounding mines, the main control factors affecting water inrush of coal seam floor are analyzed. The water inrush risk of coal seam floor is predicted and evaluated by AHP vulnerability index method. The evaluation results are compared with the traditional water inrush coefficient method. It is considered that the vulnerability index method is more comprehensive in considering factors. The results of the evaluation are more precise and practical, which can be used as a supplement to the method of water inrush coefficient.%为了提高煤层底板突水危险性预测的准确性, 依据周边矿井已有突水资料, 分析了影响煤层底板突水的主控因素, 通过AHP型脆弱性指数法对矿井煤层底板突水危险性进行了分区预测与评价, 将评价结果与传统突水系数法进行对比分析, 认为脆弱性指数法考虑因素较为全面, 评价结果更为精细, 实用性更强, 可作为突水系数法的补充.
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