条件证据网络的地面防空体系能力评估

摘要

Aiming at the uncertainty of the evaluation information entered in the requirement satisfactory degree evaluation of capability of ground air-defense systems,a method based on directed evidential network with conditional belief functions is proposed,which uses expert knowledge and historical information to carry on evidential network parameter modeling,i.e.,the conditional belief functions are used to describe the relationship between the degree of the lower level capability satisfying the demand and the degree of the upper layer capability satisfying the demand.On this basis,the evidential network is used to predict the belief distribution of capability of the system satisfying the demand.The feasibility and effectiveness of the method are analyzed by an example.%针对地面防空体系能力需求满足度评估中输入的评估信息的不确定性问题,提出了基于条件证据网络的地面防空体系能力需求满足度评估方法.该方法利用专家知识和历史信息进行条件证据网络参数建模,即利用条件信度函数描述下层能力或指标满足需求的程度与上层能力需求满足度之间的关系,在此基础上,利用条件证据网络正向推理得出体系能力满足使命任务需求的信度分布.最后用一个算例,分析了该方法的可用性和有效性.