临夏地区降水与厄尔尼诺事件的相关分析

摘要

根据1951—2014年临夏地区的气候资料,对厄尔尼诺事件与临夏地区降水进行相关分析.结果表明:厄尔尼诺事件与临夏地区降水显著相关,其置信水平达97.5%.厄尔尼诺事件与临夏地区降水成负相关.各年代的初期,临夏地区降水偏少几率较大,厄尔尼诺事件出现的几率较大.研究分析厄尔尼诺的活动规律,为临夏地区下年度的降水趋势预测,提供较为科学的预测依据.%Using the climate information during 1951 to 2014,the correlation between the precipitation of Linxia region and El Nino-La Nina phenomenon was analyzed. The result showed that El Nino-La Nina phenomenon was significantly correlative with the precipitation of Linxia region, and it passed the significant test at a confidence level of 97.5%. Precipitation in the Linxia region showed a negative correlation with El Nino. At the beginning of each decade in Linxia region,the chances of the average decrease of precipitation and El Nino events were greater. Analyzing the activity patterns of El Nino and La Nina phenomenon,it provided more scientific basis to forecast the next year precipitation trends in the Linxia region.