基于平滑变换的瓦斯涌出量灰色预测方法研究

摘要

为弱化采面瓦斯涌出量数据序列随机波动性，依据灰色模型构建理论，尝试引入不同的平滑变换函数来建立预测模型并综合对比分析．实证表明：引入实用缓冲算子的GM（1，1）模型预测拟合度和精确度更高，数据可信度更好，可为煤矿企业安全决策提供一定的理论依据．%In order to weaken stochastic volatility of mining faces gas emission amount data sequence, different smooth transformation function is attempted to create prediction model and comprehensive analysis based on grey model construction theory. Project results show that： the improved GM（ 1,1 ） model after introducing buffer operator has higher forecast accuracy, higher goodness -of- fit and better prediction data credibility. It can provide some theoretical basis for the coal mining enterprises safety decision.