2007-07-07江淮地区特大暴雨过程的地形敏感性试验分析

摘要

In order to better explore the importance of storm intensity and falling area of work of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, the terrain sensitivity effect of topography and terrain resolution anthropogenic change pattern due to the influence of the WRF on 2007-07-07-08 model of torrential rain in Jianghuai region of. The resulting control tests and 3 comparison tests showed a Northwest-southeast direction of the rainband zonal distribution. In the rainstorm process, greatly influence the Tianmu Mountain, Mount Jiuhua, Mount Huangshan in the vicinity of the terrain to the west of Jiangsu strong precipitation center position, make its position to the East offset 1 latitudes around, however, the territory of Anhui rainstorm area have little impact;effects of Mufu mountain on the rainstorm is minimum;Dabie Mountains large area terrain rainfall of Northwest Anhui effect. Using low resolution terrain, Northwestern Anhui heavy rainfall center where the rainfall is little obvious, and to the north of Jiangsu the center of heavy rainfall rainfall had no effect;using high resolution terrain, 2 strong rainfall center of rainfall were not changed.%为了更好地探究暴雨强度和落区对农业防灾减灾工作的重要性，利用WRF模式对2007-07-07—08江淮地区的特大暴雨进行了地形人为变化的影响和模式地形分辨率影响的地形敏感性试验。由此得出，控制试验和3个对比试验的雨带均呈现西北—东南走向带状分布。在此次暴雨过程中，九华山、天目山、黄山一带的地形对江苏西部强降水中心位置的影响很大，使得其位置向东偏移了1个纬度左右，但是，对安徽境内的暴雨落区影响不大；幕阜山对此次暴雨过程的影响最小；大别山一带的地形对安徽西北部的降雨量影响较大。采用较低分辨率的地形时，安徽西北部的强降雨中心降雨量明显偏少，而对江苏北部的强降雨中心降雨量并无影响；采用较高分辨率的地形时，2个强降雨中心的降雨量均未发生变化。