昆明市暴雨强度公式推算与对比

摘要

Using the minutely precipitation data of the Kunming national basic climate station from 1981 to 2014,the rainstrom formula fitted by Pearson Ⅲ distribution,Gumbell distribution,and exponential distribution are worked out respectively by the annual maximum value method.Tested by accuracy,based on the principles of minimum error,the formula fitted by the Gumbell distribution proved optimal.Contrasting the newly formulated formula with the five rainstorm intensity formula formulated respectively for Kunming and analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution features of rainstorm intensity in Kunming,the formula proved reasonable and applicable,which can provide the basis and reference for Kunming flood control engineering design and construction.%根据昆明国家基准气候站1981-2014年34年的逐分钟降水资料,基于年最大值数据采样方法,分别采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型、耿贝尔型、指数型3种分布函数曲线进行拟合试验,推算昆明市暴雨强度公式;在频率曲线拟合和暴雨强度公式参数估算时分别进行了精度检验,以误差最小为原则,得出耿贝尔型拟合的暴雨强度公式为最优公式.将新编最优公式与昆明市现有的其他5个暴雨强度公式进行对比,分析了昆明暴雨强度时空分布特征,验证了公式的合理性和适用性,为昆明城市防涝工程设计和相关设施的建设提供依据和参考.