气候异常对农业生产影响评估技术研究

摘要

利用风险度的概念来表征气候异常对农业生产的影响程度,并提出风险度的计算公式,讨论了贵州主要灾害风险度的一般规律,指出:对任何生产对象而言,干旱的风险度最大,洪涝、风雹、低温霜冻的风险度都较小;就地区分布而言,干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温霜冻风险度最大的区域基本上出现在严重夏旱区、严重秋季绵雨区、严重冰雹区、严重霜冻区.%By utilizing the risk degree as abnormal climate effect on agricultural production and discussing the general regular of the major disasters′s risk degree in Guizhou province,it is pointed out that the drought′s risk degree is larger and the flooding damage,wind-hail and frost′s risk degrees are smaller for any production object.The larger risk degrees of drought,the flooding damage,wind-hail and frost appear are mainly in heavy summer drought area,heavy autumn continuous rain area,heavy hail area and heavy frost area.