近30年江苏人体舒适度指数变化特征分析

摘要

利用江苏地区37个观测站1980－2009年逐日气象资料,通过线性趋势以及通径分析法,对人体舒适度指数（CIHB）的时空演变特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1）近30年来,江苏年均CIHB呈现显著的上升趋势,线性趋势为0.11/年,淮北、江淮之间、苏南的CIHB年际变化特征与全省平均的演变特征基本保持一致;（2）除夏季外,其余三个季节的CIHB均有较明显的上升趋势,其中春季的上升趋势最为明显,秋季次之,冬季的年际变化幅度最大,CIHB春、夏（秋、冬）两季的南北差异较小（较大）;（3）CIHB与温度（相对湿度和风速）存在显著的正（负）相关,其中温度对CIHB的正影响最大,相对湿度和风速对CIHB的最终影响是通过温度起负作用;（4）虽然近30年江苏整个夏季的CIHB不存在明显的变化趋势,但自20世纪90年代初期以来,7、9月份还是存在着弱上升趋势。研究表明,在全球气候变暖的大背景下,对江苏地区的CIHB气候变化特征的研究可为人们应对气象要素变化采取有效防范措施以及旅游、能源业的气象服务提供一定的科学依据。%Based on the daily meteorological data observed by 37 stations in Jiangsu Province from 1980 to 2009,the spatio-temporal characteristics of comfort index of human body（CIHB） were studied by use of the linear trend and path analysis.The results indicated that the average annual CIHB index in all Jiangsu and the three partitions（the north of the Huaihe River,the area between Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers and the south of Yangtze River） presents a remarkable increasing trend during the past 30 years,and the linear increasing trend of CIHB in Jiangsu is 0.11/a.Except in summer,the average annual CIHB index of Jiangsu in the other three seasons has an obvious ascendant trend.Increasing is the most prominent in spring and the interannual variation is the most remarkable in winter.In addition,the north-south difference of CIHB index in autumn and winter is more than that in spring and summer.There is a significant positive （negative） correlation between CIHB and temperature（relative humidity and wind speed）,furthermore, the temperature has the biggest impact on CIHB.Although the whole summer CIHB index over the past three decades has no obvious change trend,there is still weak rising trend in July and September since the 1990s.Under the background of the global warming,the research of the characteristics of CIHB climate change may provide scientific basis for people taking effective prevention measures for the variation of meteorological elements and meteorological services about tourism and energy industry.