应用Models-3／CMAQ对2011年3月日本福岛核泄漏的数值研究

摘要

2011年3月12日，受日本以东地震和海啸影响，福岛核电站发生核物质泄漏。本文采用空气质量模式系统（Models-3／CMAQ），在理想假设条件下，对此次核泄漏事故进行了数值模拟。研究结果表明：模拟期间，核泄漏物质主要影响福岛附近地区和西北太平洋海区；核泄漏物质能扩散至较高的高度，源区核辐射量随高度呈指数减小；核泄漏物质主要通过东北路径和偏东路径影响我国，但核辐射影响极其轻微；Models-3／CMAQ具有对核泄漏事故的模拟能力。%Affected by strong earthquake and tsunami in east Japan, large amounts of radioactivity have been emitted from Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant since 12 March 2011. In this paper,Models-3/CMAQ is used to simulate the radioactive leak under ideal conditions. The results show that the radioactive releases mainly affect the vicinity of Fukushima and the northwest of the Pacific Ocean, the radioactive releases can disperse to higher altitudes, and the concentration of radioactive releases decreases exponentially with height increasing in source region. Moreover, radioactive releases have trivial effect on China through northeastern and eastern paths; and Models-3/CMAQ is capable of simulating radioactive-leak accident.