基于模式预报倾向的预报系统设计与初步试验

摘要

为了充分利用数值模式的预报产品信息，首先对数值模式预报产品的误差进行了分析，针对误差分析结果，首次提出了一种新的基于模式预报倾向的精细化预报方法，并在此基础上设计开发了新疆精细化数值预报系统。初步试验结果表明：该方法对新疆地区的温度预报具有一定的正效果。后期经过调整订正系数，利用更多时次的观测资料进行温度订正，则有望可以使订正的温度更加接近观测。即该方法可以提高气象台站的温度预报准确率，展现了该方法的业务应用潜力。%To fully use the information of forecast products from numerical models,the errors of the prod-ucts are analyzed.According to the results of the analysis,a refined forecast method is proposed and based on it a new Xinjiang refined numerical forecast system is developed.Preliminary tests are conducted and the results show that the new method has a positive effect on temperature forecasting in the area of Xin-jiang.After adjustment of correction coefficients and usage of more observations at different time points, the corrected temperature is expected to be much closer to the observations.That is,the method can im-prove the accuracy of temperature forecasting and has operational application potential.