SMS-WAR MS V2．0模式预报效果检验

摘要

提对新一代上海区域中尺度模式（SMS-WARMS V2．0）系统预报结果进行了统计检验，检验量包括降水、2 m温度场、10 m风速、500 hPa位势高度场和850 hPa温度场、风场和相对湿度。结果表明：新一代模式的预报性能得到明显改善，模式各量级降水的TS和ETS评分都有提高，说明模式对降水事件发生的捕捉能力进一步增强了。分析2 m 温度场的均方根误差及预报准确率发现新版业务模式的2 m温度场预报优于原业务模式。此外新业务模式的10 m 风速预报的均方根误差的逐月和多月平均值都低于原业务模式。高空形势场检验结果显示，新业务模式对500 hPa位势高度场和850 hPa温度场的预报都优于原业务模式，850 hPa风场预报相关系数高于原业务模式，850 hPa相对湿度提高不明显。个例分析表明，新版业务模式强降水预报产品相对于原业务模式产品对天气预报更具参考价值。%Forecast products from SMS-WARMS V2.0,including rainfall,2 m temperature,10 m wind speed,geopotential height at 500 hPa and temperature,wind and relative humidity at 850 hPa are verified. Overall,the forecasts of SMS-WARMS V2 .0 are significantly improved.The improved TS and ETS of rainfall forecast for all grades indicate that the model can capture the occurrence of precipitation events bet-ter.The verification on 2 m temperature also show large improvement.Moreover,the monthly and aver-age monthly mean RMSE value of 10 m wind speed of the new model is lower than the old one.Both 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind field from the new model are better,the same results for the correlation coefficient of 850 hPa wind forecast.However,there is little improvement in the 850 hPa rela-tive humidity forecast.Case analysis shows that the heavy precipitation forecast product of SMS-WARMS V2 .0 has more reference significance than that of SMS-WARMS V1 .0 .