2016年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋预报精度评定

摘要

以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的最佳路径数据集为依据,对2016年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋(TC)定位精度及路径、强度和登陆点预报精度进行了评定,结果表明:2016年定位总平均误差24.9 km,比2015年略偏大.主观和客观路径预报误差没有延续之前持续减小的趋势,整体预报能力比前两年略有降低.ECMWF-EPS、NCEP-GEFS和UKMO-EPS三个集合预报系统的台风路径预报整体性能要好于其他集合预报系统.各主客观预报方法的台风强度预报性能与往年相比没有大的改进.主观方法对超强台风莎莉嘉在海南万宁的24 h登陆点预报误差均非常小,误差在15 km 以下.全球模式的登陆点预报性能表现要优于区域模式.%Operational positioning,track,intensity and landfall point forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific in 2016 are evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI's "Best-track" dataset. The results show that the performance of TC positioning is a little larger than that in last year,with an av-erage error by all methods is 24.9 km.The track forecast errors of both subjective and objective methods do not continue to decrease,which means the overall forecast performance in 2016 is slightly lower than that in the previous two years.The ECMWF-EPS,NCEP-GEFS and UKMO-EPS have better performance in track prediction than other ensemble prediction systems.No significant improvement in TC intensity prediction by subjective methods has been seen compared with previous years.However,the subjective methods have very small prediction error for the 24 h landfall point of Super Typhoon Sarika in Wanning, Hainan,and the errors are less than 15 km.The landfall prediction performance of global models is better than that of regional models.