2017年9-11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

摘要

The medium-range forecasting performances of T639,ECMWF and Japan (JP) models from September to November 2017 are verified and compared.The results show that all the three models could predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitudes well.The ECMWF model has good performance in predicting activities of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) while the T639 model predicts the position of WPSH further north.For temperature at 850 hPa,mean forecast error by ECMWF model is smaller than by other two models.The T639 (JP) model gives lower (higher) temperature forecast than the observation respectively.As far as Typhoon Mawar is concerned,all the three models predict its position more northwest and strength weaker.However,the ECM-WF model could show the direction change of this typhoon.The ECMWF model performs much better in forecasting the intensity of cold high pressure during a cold air process while the T639 and Japan models create greater errors.%对2017年9-11月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验,结果表明:三个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能.在中期时效内ECMWF能够较好地预报副热带高压的南北摆动和东西移动趋势,T639模式对副热带高压位置的预报易偏北.对850 hPa温度场,ECMWF模式的平均预报误差较小,预报性能较好,T639(JP)模式预报较实况偏低(偏高).三个模式对台风玛娃中心位置的预报较零场偏西偏南,强度预报均偏弱,其中ECMWF模式对台风转向有所体现.对于冷空气过程中的海平面气压场预报,ECMWF模式对冷高压的强度预报与零场更为一致,而T639和JP模式的预报偏差较大.