用动态不等时距灰色模型预测滑坡变形

摘要

Based on the monitoring data of Jinpingzi landslide, the accuracy and applicability of the model is verified. The practice has proved that due to the latest data added to the system in real time, the prediction accuracy of the dynamic forecasting model is higher than that of the non-dynamic model, which is more applicable to engineering. Meanwhile, the monitoring data is stored based on SQL Server,and C # is used to prepare a model validation and prediction program, thus greatly improving the efficiency of the modeling and the prediction. The program is easy to use and highly applicable.%基于金坪子滑坡的实际变形监测数据,对动态不等时距灰色模型预测滑坡度变形的预测精度及可行性进行了充分的分析与论证.实践证明,动态预测模型由于实时加入系统的最新数据,预测精度比非动态模型明显提高,更适合于工程应用.同时,基于SQL Server对监测数据进行存储,采用C#编制了模型比较验证及预测程序,大大提高了建模及预测的效率.程序简单易用,适用性强.