动力煤期货对现货市场影响

摘要

China is the country with largest coal-energy reserves, and also the largest coal producer and consumer in the world. Power coal futures have an impact on the spot market. Factors affecting the prices of power coal mainly include macro-economic situation at domestic, variation of the international coal price, coal consumption in downstream power plants, and major rail transport quantity ( Datong-Qinhuangdao line) and so on. Qualitative and quantitative methods are integrated to ana-lyze the development status of power coal futures. According to the variation interaction between spot market price and futures market, effects of the thermal coal futures on avoiding price fluctuation risks in the spot market are discussed. The study shows that power coal futures listed can avoid the price volatility risk for power coals industry chain and industries involved.%中国是以煤炭为最大能源原料的国家，也是世界最大的煤炭生产国和消费国，动力煤期货的上市对现货市场将产生影响；影响我国动力货价格的因素主要有国内宏观经济形势、国际动力煤价格变化、动力煤下游电厂消费量、主要铁路运输干线(大秦线)运量等方面。通过综合运用定性与定量的方法，就动力煤期货上市后的发展状况，按照动力煤现货市场价格变化与期现货价格的互动关系，探讨动力煤期货对煤炭现货市场规避价格波动风险的影响。研究结果表明：动力煤期货的推出为动力煤产业链主要涉及的行业提供了规避价格波动风险的工具。