乌龙泉矿产能预测及对策研究

摘要

In view of the productivity prediction demand in Wulongquan Mine,the gray prediction method about difference of the relative error value and the non-consecutive neighboring average value is put forward according to the occurrence situation of mining existing resources and the present situation of the mining technological conditions.Based on this,the productivity prediction model of limestone is established.The model has effectively reduced the adverse effect of abnormal data and better reflected the changing trend of mine production capacity.Meanwhile,the average forecasting error rate is less than 5％.The productivity prediction model has been used to analyze the production forecast value for Wulongquan mine from 2016 to 2020.Combining with the mine deposit geology grade distribution,equipment configuration and usage and the increasingly improving possibility of stope situation,the average annual forecasting output of the mine in five years is comprehensively determined as 817 000 tons of limestone mine.Then,the purchasing strategy of the limestone mine and the specific measures of ensuring the mining capacity have been drew up.%针对乌龙泉矿产能预测需求,结合矿山现有资源赋存情况特点和开采技术条件现状,采用基于相对误差值Δ的大小和非紧邻均值生成算法的灰色预测方法,建立矿山石灰石的产能预测模型;该模型有效地减小了异常数据的不利影响,较好地反映了该矿产能变化趋势,预测值平均误差率不高于5％.采用该产能预测模型对乌龙泉矿2016-2020年的石灰石产量进行预测分析,并结合矿山矿床地质品位分布、设备配置及使用情况和采场开采条件日趋改善的可能性,综合确定该矿5 a石灰石平均年产量为81.7万t,进而制定矿山外购石灰石产品的策略和保证矿山产能的具体措施.