蒸发波导是海上大气波导中发生概率最高、对海上舰艇和岸基雷达探测系统影响最大的一种波导类型,研究意义重大.本文搭建了一种基于NPS诊断模型的新型蒸发波导数值预报模式,对我国南海海域2014年11月1～5日的5 d海上蒸发波导分别进行了数值模拟.利用数值模拟数据与岸基铁塔实测数据分别绘制蒸发波导高度随时间的变化曲线,并进行误差分析,显示模拟结果与实测结果变化规律基本一致,统计计算这5 d的蒸发波导高度平均误差为1.289 m.这表明了本模式的可行性及其存在的模拟偏差.此外,利用本预报模式对南海海域2011年整年的蒸发波导进行了数值模拟,得到了12个月的蒸发波导时空分布特征,分析总结的规律与其它文献的研究结论基本一致.%The evaporation duct has the highest occurrence compared to other types of atmospheric ducts over sea. Moreover, it has the greatest impact on the radar detection system of naval ships and along the shore; therefore, evaluating the evaporation duct is necessary. In this study, a new numerical prediction model of the evaporation duct based on the NPS diagnostic model is proposed. The evaporation duct process over the South China Sea for five consecutive days from November 1, 2014 is numerically simulated using the proposed prediction model. The simulation results are compared with the tower observation data in the way: the comparison of the time-dependent curves of evaporation duct height and the error analysis. The results are in good agreement and have consistent variation. Moreover, the average error of the evaporation duct height for all five days is 1.289 m. This demonstrates the feasibility and simulation error of the model. Besides, the prediction model is used to simulate the evaporation duct over the South China Sea during the entire year of 2011. Spatial-temporal features of the evaporation duct for 12 months are statistically analyzed and the conclusion of the analysis is consistent with that of other literatures.
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