热带气旋中期路径的动力相似预测方案

摘要

提出一个西北太平洋热带气旋中期路径的动力相似预测方案.方案应用热带气旋初始参数和数值预报产品,构造未来时刻环境要素场的多元客观相似判据.通过定义非线性的相似指数综合评估历史热带气旋样本与预报热带气旋在多元判据下的连续动态相似程度,以此找到相似样本.应用相似样本的历史路径进行坐标变换、相似指数的权重综合和惯性动力修正,得到热带气旋中期预报路径.预报试验表明该方案具有预报技巧.%A dynamic similarity prediction of mid-term track of tropical cyclones (TCs) is proposed according to multi-criteria consisted of environmental factors and TC parameters. Samples resembling the TC forecasted are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multi-criteria. The mid-term track of TC is then predicted by transforming the coordinates of the track, weighted synthesis of the similarity index, and inertia dynamic correction in the samples. Tests demonstrate that this technique has a positive prediction skill as compared to the climatology and persistency method.