珠江口沿岸极值增水的空间分布

摘要

The numerical model of the astronomical tide and storm surge in the Pearl River estuary region is established by using FVCOM model.The distribution characteristics of K1,O1,S2 and M2 are obtained by using harmonic analysis method.The typical typhoon storm surge processed near the Pearl River Estuary is simulated to verify the accuracy of the model.Based on the model,the influence of 100 typhoons during the years 1993-2013 in the vicinity of the Pearl River estuary is simulated.By using the Gumbel distribution,the storm surge extreme water increment is calculated.The storm surge in the west side of the Pearl River estuary is more extreme than that in the east.The once-in-a-century storm surge maximum value 3.19m appears in the middle of the town San Zao and the town Chi Xi.This paper can provide reference for storm surge protection and coastal engineering design in the Pearl River Estuary.%利用FVCOM模式建立了珠江口区域的天文潮和风暴潮数值模型,采用调和分析方法得到该区域K1、O1、M2、S24个主要分潮的等振幅线和等迟角线的分布特征,并选取典型台风对影响珠江口附近海域的台风暴潮过程进行了模拟计算,验证了模型的准确性,并基于该模型模拟了1993-2013年影响珠江口附近海域的共48场台风过程;利用Gumbel分布,计算了百年一遇的风暴潮极值增水,珠江口门外西侧的极值增水大于东侧,其中该区域百年一遇风暴增水的最大值出现在赤溪镇和三灶镇中间的海域为3.19m,可为珠江口沿岸地区的风暴潮防护和海岸工程设计提供参考.