中国城镇居民消费结构的时空演变规律及其在需求拉动模型中的应用

摘要

As China's economy steps into the new normal era,consumption has become a new growth area and driving force of the economy.Urban residents are important consumers and the evolution of their consumption structure bears heavily on how China's industrial structure should be adjusted.Classic demand pull models of input and output only consider changes of total consumption at large in the study of impacts of final consumption.However,they assume the consumption structure remains the same as that concluded from the latest survey and this would lead to severe simulation bias in an economic restructuring period.This paper deeply analyzes the basic characteristics of the spatial and temporal variation of key consumption coefficients of urban residents.Furthermore,several influencing factors are selected to conduct a panel regression of the key consumption coefficients in accordance with consumption theories,and some factors with significant explanatory power are obtained.This paper simulates the pulling effects of consumption of urban residents in 2015,based on constructed models.Firstly,regression model is adopted to get predictive values of the key coefficients.Then,the consumption structure of urban residents in 2015 is modified according the above-mentioned.Finally,this paper applies demand pull model to the modified consumption structure as a way of calculating the pulling effects of the consumption of urban residents on various industries.Compared with the measured value of total output which still uses the traditional consumption structure of 2012,the result indicates significant differences.Clearly,the application of wrong assumptions in consumption structure will markedly underestimate the pulling effect on the total output.%随着我国经济进入新常态,消费成为了经济新的增长点和拉动力.城镇居民作为重要的消费主体,其消费结构的演变对于产业结构的调整至关重要.在研究最终消费的影响时,经典的投入产出需求拉动模型一般仅考虑消费总量的变化,但假设消费结构与最近调查年份一致,这种处理方法在经济结构调整时期显然将导致严重的模拟偏误.本文深入分析了城镇居民重点消费系数的时空变化的基本特征,进而依据消费理论选择若干影响因素对重点消费系数进行了面板回归,得到具有显著解释力的若干因素.基于所构建的模型,论文模拟了2015年城镇居民消费的拉动效果,首先使用回归模型得到重点系数回归预测值,并据此对2015年城镇居民消费结构进行了修正,进而使用修正的消费结构运用需求拉动模型计算了城镇居民消费对各产业的拉动作用,与传统沿用2012年的消费结构所得到的总产出测算值相比,结果存在显著的差异,发现使用消费结构不变的错误假设将显著低估对总产出的拉动作用.