基于系统动力学的台风灾害应急策略研究

摘要

China is one of the hardest hit regions by typhoon.A typhoon disaster emergency model is established based on system dynamics in this paper.A multi-objective dynamics model is proposed to consider the degree of public panic and loss rate and to discover effective management policies.Different from other existing studies,both natural and social factors are introduced.The management mechanisms including government,flood control and drought relief headquarters and public are considered by multi-Agent model and simulation theory.Water disaster caused by typhoon Fitow is taken as instance in Yuyao City,Zhejiang Province.The empirical study demonstrates that government emergency scheduling,cooperation of flood control and drought relief headquarters and participation of citizens directly influence loss and public panic.Numerical simulation indicates that three factors are of roughly equal importance.It is useful to improve theoretical level of emergency management system,especially to deal with the typhoon.The results also prove that multiple subjects including government,flood control and drought relief headquarters,citizens should respond to typhoon disaster positively and actively.%我国是世界上受台风灾害影响最大的国家之一.基于系统动力学,构建了考虑市民恐慌程度和损失率的多目标动力学模型,探索台风灾害应急管理策略.不同于现有台风灾害研究,该模型将台风的自然属性和社会属性引入研究框架.通过多主体建模和仿真理论,梳理政府、防指、市民等多元主体在台风灾害应急管理中的行为机制.以2013年台风“菲特”造成的浙江余姚水灾为例对模型进行了验证.研究表明,政府应急调度水平、防指协同度和市民参与度直接影响到台风灾害带来的经济损失和社会恐慌程度;且以数值仿真分析论证上述三个影响因素的重要程度基本相当.本研究在理论层面上对突发事件应急管理体系特别是台风应对方法有所贡献;对构建包括政府、防指、市民等多元主体积极、主动响应台风灾害提供理论依据.