基于联合成功率的飞机总体设计评价方法研究

摘要

为了提高设计决策的科学性和稳健性,对不确定因素影响下的飞机总体方案评价问题进行了研究,提出了一个以联合成功率为综合评价指标的决策方法.根据多变量概率理论,定义了联合成功率的数学表达式,研究了联合概率密度函数的计算方法:联合概率模型；依托联合概率分布,将概率设计方法和多准则决策方法进行有机结合,给出了基于联合成功率的飞机总体方案评价步骤.最后,通过算例分析,对该方法的实际应用进行了演示,并验证了联合概率模型的合理性.%In order to deal with the evaluation of aircraft conceptual/preliminary design impacted by a vast amount of uncertainty, then make the result of the design decision making more scientific and robust than traditional method,a new decision-making method which regards joint probability of success of the design as overall evaluation index was developed.According to multi-oariate probability theory,the mathe-matic formula of joint probability of success was presented,and a specific algorithm was introduced that compute the joint probability density function:Joint probability model.By the joint probability distribution function,traditional probabilistic method and multi梒riteria decision making technique were combined together,and the specific operation process of this new method was outlined.Finally,the application of this method in practice was demonstrated via an example,and the rationality of the joint probability density model was illustrated.