基于改进分数阶卡尔曼滤波的光伏发电功率预测算法

摘要

The fractional theory was applied into the photovoltaic power prediction.The analysis of the fractional system and fractional order difference equation was carried out.The photovoltaic power generation data was evaluated by the fractional order characteristic equations.The photovoltaic power prediction algorithm based on modified fractional Kalman filter was proposed.The accuracy of the proposed method is verified by the filed data, which meets the requirements of engineering application.%在光伏功率预测算法中引入分数阶理论,基于分数阶差分方程分析,建立改进分数阶卡尔曼滤波模型.利用分数阶特性将历史光伏发电数据进行合理评估,提出一种基于改进分数阶卡尔曼滤波的光伏功率预测算法.结合光伏发电的现场数据验证预测方法的适用性,仿真结果表明满足工程应用的要求.