基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的河北沿海地区物流需求预测研究

摘要

以灰色预测理论为基础.通过不同的原始数据序列构建不同维度的GM(1,1)模型,对其预测精度进行比较；并选取精度最高的模型建立起新陈代谢模型,采用等维灰数递补的动态预测方法,对河北沿海地区“十二五”期间的物流需求进行预测.%On the basis of the gray forecasting theory, we have established GM(1,1) models of different dimensionalities using different original data sequences and compared their forecasting accuracy, then choosing the one with the highest accuracy, we have established a metabolic model and using the equal-dimension gray filling forecast dynamically the logistics demand of the Hebei region during the twelfth-five period.