基于岭回归分析的山西省物流业发展实证研究

摘要

以山西省1990-2010年相关统计数据为依据,采用多元线性回归、多重共线性检验和岭回归估计的方法,建立了关于山西省货物运输周转量与GDP、社会消费品零售总额、进出口总额、固定资产在交通运输仓储邮电业的投资额等变量间的关系模型,定量地分析了山西物流业发展影响因素的具体边际水平,以对山西经济和物流业的未来发展提供决策参考.%In this paper, on the basis of the relevant statistical data of Shanxi of the years from 1990 to 2010, we used the multiple regression method, raulti-colinearity check and ridge regression estimation method to establish the relational model between the freight transportation turnover of Shanxi and the GDP, gross retail of social consuming products, gross import/export, fixed assets invested in transportation, traffic, warehousing and postal industries, etc., and quantitatively analyzed the specific marginal level of the influence factors in the development of the logistics industry of Shanxi.