中国物流业与批发零售业的协同发展一直以来都深受国家的重视.根据中国31个省市2002、2007、2012这三年的投入产出表数据对物流业与批发零售业的协同发展水平及趋势进行分析,结果表明中国物流业的中间需求在不断扩大,批发零售业对物流业的推动作用大于物流业对批发零售业的拉动作用,两业的发展存在不协同.利用1978-2015年的时间序列构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应及方差分解动态分析两业的关系,发现物流业对于批发零售业发展的贡献度要高于批发零售业对于物流业发展的贡献度.最后就分析结果提出了中国物流业与批发零售业协同发展的若干建议.%In this paper, we analyzed the collaborative level of the logistics industry and wholesaling/retailing industry of 31 provinces and cities of China for the years of 2002, 2007 and 2012, finding that the intermediate demand of the logistics industry in China was constantly expanding, the pushing effect of the wholesaling/retailing industry toward the logistics industry was larger than the pulling effect of the logistics industry toward the wholesaling/retailing industry, and the two industries were less than collaborated. Then using the time series of the period from 1978 to 2015, we built the corresponding VAR model, and used the pulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the dynamic relationship between the two to find that the contribution of the logistics industry to the wholesaling/retailing industry was larger than the other way around. At the end, we proposed a series of suggestions to promote the collaborative development of the two.
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