中国对东南亚国家油气产业链出口潜力研究——基于面板引力模型

摘要

This paper has estimated the export potentials of China's petroleum-gas industry chain and calculated the future growth room of export by employing the panel gravity model.The findings are as follows:The economy scales of both China and Southeast Asia exert positive influence on the exports of China's petroleum-gas industry chain;Singapore and Malaysia have greater trade potentials in terms of the total trade volume w hile Singapore,Indonesia and Philippines have greater trade potentials w hen it comes to the petroleum-gas industry chain;In the next five years,the export potentials of China's petroleum-gas industry chain to Southeast Asia will be remarkably restrained,with more focus to be shifted on the cooperation of trade and investment.%利用面板引力模型估计中国对东南亚国家油气产业链贸易潜力并估算未来出口增长空间.研究发现:中国和东南亚国家经济规模均正向影响中国油气产业链出口贸易;贸易总量上新加坡和马来西亚贸易潜力较大,新加坡、印度尼西亚和菲律宾油气产业链贸易潜力较大;未来5年内,中国对东南亚国家油气产业链出口潜力明显受约束,应更多关注贸易和投资并举的方式.