基于偏离－份额法对中国13个粮食主产区1980～2012年间粮食产量在稻谷、玉米、小麦和其他作物的结构、区位、竞争力优势及效益等问题进行了实证研究。研究认为：中国粮食主产区确保粮食安全的主体功能得到持续增强，但粮食主产区的粮食产能竞争格局和粮食结构正面临重大调整和变局，口粮安全保障变得脆弱，粮食主产区竞争潜能和实际竞争力存在严重偏离，粮食主产区间的粮食结构效益、竞争力效益和综合效益差距显著。为此，必须正视粮食主产区间的粮食结构和竞争力的非均衡性问题，重塑和确立传统稻谷主产区的潜在产能优势，增强口粮结构效益和竞争力效益，确保持续的口粮安全，形成稳定的多元化粮食格局，巩固和增强新兴产粮大区地位，对高效作物建立“粮食特区”，以特殊政策支持农民增粮增产。%The paper makes an empirical research on the structures,locations,competitive advantages and efficiency of rice,corn,wheat and other agricultural plants in 13 main grain pro-duction areas from 1980 to 2012 based on shift-share method. Research reflects that the main function of grain security in China has continued to be enhanced,but the competition of grain pro-duction capacity and the grain structure of major grain producing areas are facing major adjust-ments and changes,which makes grain security become weak. The competitive potential of grain production area deviates from its actual competitiveness,and there are significant gaps in the grain structure efficiency,competitive benefits and comprehensive benefit among the grain producing ar-eas. Therefore,great attention should be paid to the non-equilibrium problem of grain structure and competitiveness,the potential production advantage of traditional rice production area should be reconstructed and established,and the structure efficiency and competitive benefits of grain should be enhanced to guarantee the sustainable security of grain. A stable multi-grain structure should be formed,emerging large grain production areas should be consolidated and strengthened, and "grain special zones" for high production grains should be established to support farmers in increasing grain production with special policies.
展开▼
