Objective To evaluates the influence of major air pollutants in Urumqi city ard residents the re‐spiratory system disease .Methods On the basis of controlling the time long‐term trend ,seasonal trend , weeks effect ,meteorological factor ,the research objectives is aboat the relevance of atmospheric pollutant concentration and the number of Urumqi residents of suffering from respiratory system disease .The time‐series analysis is conducted by using Generalized Additive Model (GAM ) .Results (1)An increase of 10 μg/m3 of SO2 ,NO2 and PM10 could increase the total of the number of daily hospital by 0 .47% (95%CI :0 .03% -0 .91% ) ,0 .55% (95% CI :-0 .02% -1 .12% ) and 0 .25% (95% CI :0 .08% -0 .42% re‐spectively .(2)In the research time ,the main pollutant concentration was on the decline and the serious pollution time mainly concentrated in the 2007 ,2008 .(3)Not only decreased the number of daily hospital of respiratory system disease but also the cyclical was fluctuations .Conclusion (1) The air SO2 ,PM10 of monitoring levels had an adverse effect on the number of daily hospital of the local residents in Urumqi cit‐y .But the air NO2 had less effect of number of daily hospital statistically .(2) SO2 and PM10 are the most higher in the three main pollutants concentration .(3)The three main pollutants concentration have rela‐tionship with the atmosphere agent .%目的：定量评估乌鲁木齐城区主要大气污染物二氧化硫（SO2）、二氧化氮（NO2）、颗粒物（PM10）对居民呼吸系统疾病的影响，建立大气污染对人群健康影响的预测模型。方法采用时间序列的广义相加模型（GAM），在控制了时间的长期趋势、季节趋势、周效应、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上，研究乌鲁木齐市区2005年1月1日－2009年12月31日大气污染物浓度与居民所患呼吸系统疾病人数的关联性。结果（1）大气中SO2、NO2、PM10浓度每增加10μg／m3，呼吸系统疾病日住院人数分别增加0．85％（95％CI：0．27～1．36）、0．56％（95％CI：0．24～1．21）、0．63％（95％CI：0．46～1．65）。（2）研究期间的主要污染物浓度总体呈下降趋势，污染较严重的时间段主要集中在2007年和2008年。（3）研究期间呼吸系统疾病日住院人数不仅持续增加，而且是呈周期性的波动存在（夏季偏低，冬季偏高）。结论（1）乌鲁木齐呼吸系统疾病日住院人数增加的主要污染物是SO2、PM10，NO2影响较小；（2）研究期间乌鲁木齐市3种主要污染物中浓度较高的是SO2、PM10；（3）3种主要污染物与气象因素存在相关性。
展开▼
