中国资产负债表错配与金融稳定

摘要

在国际资本流动和政府财政赤字作用下，中国信贷不断扩张，金融不稳定隐患增加。以货币危机理论为基础，运用资产负债表方法，分析了中国资产负债表中经济部门过度负债的资本结构错配、经济总体债务趋向短期的期限错配和日趋显性且加剧的债权型的货币错配现象，阐释了国家资产负债表错配的原因，从中国经济全貌着手分析了其可能存在的金融不稳定性。为促进金融稳定，应积极运用创新金融产品盘活货币存量，破冰预算软约束，对资本项目实施宏观审慎监管，进而化解国家资产负债表错配的风险。%Under the action of the international capital flow and the government budget deficits,bank credit expansion of China was continuous,the financial instability was increased.Based on the currency crisis theory,adopting the Bal-ance Sheet Approach,this paper analyzes the capital structure mismatch of excessive debt of China′s economic sector, the mismatch of economy gross debt which tends to be short term,and the currency mismatch of the creditor′s right that increasingly becomes apparent and aggravated,and illustrates the reason of the mismatching of national balance sheet in order to analyze its possible financial instability from the whole economy.In order to promote financial stability China, we should use innovative financial products to revitalize the money stock,break the soft budget constraint and implement the macro-prudential regulation on capital project,then dissolve the risk of mismatching of national balance sheet.