陕西全面建成小康社会的现状评价及进程预测

摘要

Tobuildacomprehensivewell-offsocietyby2020isanimportantgoalofChina′smodernization.Thispa-per divides the evaluation index of well-off society into two parts ("synchronous index"and "qualified index")with six categories and 23 items in it.And then it calculates quantitatively the degree of realization of well-off in Shaanxi and its ten cities and one district in 2005 -201 3 ,and analyzes its advantages and disadvantages and constraints factors. The results of the ETS model,ARIMA model and combination forecast show that there are still some uncertainties in the target of completing the well-off society in an all-round way in Shaanxi as scheduled,which is based on the latest e-conomic and social development environment at home and abroad and in Shaanxi.In view of the short board regarding e-conomic development,social harmony,quality of life,and building a comprehensive well-off society,corresponding policy recommendations are made.%2020年前全面建成小康社会是中国现代化建设的重要目标。将小康社会评价指标分为“同步”和“够格”两大方面六大类23项，定量测算了2005－2013年间陕西及其十市一区的小康实现程度，并分析了其优劣势和制约因素。结合国内外和陕西最新经济社会发展环境，预测了陕西“十三五”小康社会的进程， ETS模型、ARIMA模型与组合预测的结果表明陕西如期完成全面小康社会目标仍有一定的不确定性。针对经济发展、社会和谐与生活质量等陕西全面建成小康社会的短板，给出了相应的政策建议。