基于系统动力学的三峡库区水上突发事件应急救援效率研究

摘要

基于三峡库区水上突发事件救援特点及其应急救援流程,分析了救援要素间的因果关系,建立三峡库区水上突发事件应急救援系统动力学模型.利用Anylogic仿真平台对模型进行模拟,探讨不同要素对水上突发事件应急救援效率影响的变化规律,提出了提高三峡库区水上突发事件应急救援效率的相应措施.%The characteristics of emergency rescue in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and the process of emergency rescue are introduced, and then it analyzes the causality between the elements influencing water emergency rescue system.A dynamic model of water emergency rescue system of Three Gorges reservoir is established.By using Anylogic simulation platform to simulate the model, some change trends on response time of water emergency rescue are obtained under the influence of different factors in the system.Finally, the corresponding measures to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area are put forward according to these trends, and it provides practical basis for emergency rescue management in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.