地震灾害损失评估方法及其应用研究

摘要

New Taipei City is located in northern Taiwan Province and it is in the Circum Pacific seismic zone which is vulnerable to the threats of earthquakes.The earthquake in Hualien on 11/15 1986 caused Huayang Market in New North City collapse.Chi-Chi earthquake on 9/21 1999 with its epicenter in Nantou County which caused two community buildings collapse in New Taipei City and over 50,000 buildings collapsed all over Taiwan Province.To estimate the potential loss of New Taipei City, Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES) is used in this paper in order to be able to effectively assess the potential risk of the earthquake and the possible loss of disasters.Ground motion intensity, possibility of liquefaction in the soil, the numbers of collapse of buildings, numbers of casualties, numbers of fires triggered by the earthquake, damaged bridges, and disaster relief resources, etc.are estimated.The estimated results can be used as references for advance deployment, disaster prevention, and disaster-reduction planning.%新北市位处台湾北部,处于环太平洋地震带上,极易遭受地震灾害威胁.1986年11月15日花莲地震造成新北市华阳市场倒塌,而后1999年9月21日南投县集集地震导致新北市新庄区博士的家及龙阁小区两处大楼倒塌,全台湾房屋全倒、半倒各50 000多栋.为掌握地震潜在危险程度与可能引致的灾损,利用台湾地震损失评估系统(TELES)进行情境模拟分析,以期能有效评估地震潜在的危险程度与可能引致的灾害损失,如地表振动强度、土壤发生液化的可能性、建筑物倒塌、人员伤亡、桥梁损害,以及防救灾资源需求等,评估结果可作为防灾提前部署、减灾、整备规划的参考.