滑坡时间预报在保护人员财产免受损失方面具有重要的现实意义,合适的预报模型是预报成功的关键.针对滑坡系统的模糊性、不确定性等特点,采用了灰色系统预报滑坡时间.结合甘肃省黄茨滑坡的监测得到的位移时间资料,采用基于位移信息的Verhulst灰色模型,用Matlab编制计算程序,对黄茨滑坡的时间预报作反分析,得出滑坡发生时间的预测值及预测滑坡变形发展曲线,并将该结果与实际监测结果进行对比分析,以验证该灰色模型在滑坡时间预报中的适用性.结果表明,灰色Verhulst模型应用于滑坡时间预报中是可行的；时间预报结果与滑坡的实际滑动时间基本吻合,预测滑坡变形曲线基本与位移监测值展布趋势一致.合理的位移监测点布置、合适的记录时间间隔、位移数据的数学处理及多个监测点位移数据的综合分析有助于提高预报精度.%The forecast of the landslide time is of great practical importance in protecting individuals and assets, and an applicable forecast model plays a pivotal role in the success of the forecast. Grey model was constructed for forecasting the time in landslide for its ambiguity and uncertainty. Combined with materials of displacement time observed from Huangci in Gansu Province and based on the Verhulst Grey Model of the displacement information, back analysis was conducted on the time forecast of Huangci landslide. The prediction of the landslide-time and the predicted curve of deformation development were resulted by Matlab. The results were compared with the actual data to verify the applicability of the grey model in forecasting the time of a landslide. The results show that the Verhulst Grey Model is feasible in forecasting the time of a landslide, the predicted time basically agrees well with the actual time of the slide, and the trend of the predicted deformation curve is basically consistent with the observed value. The precision of the forecast is enhanced by the rational distributions of displacement monitoring sites, the appropriate time intervals of records, the mathematics processing of displacement data and the comprehensive analysis of the data from several monitoring sites.
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