A 2-D tidal flow mathematical model of Oujiang estuary was established in this paper,and the model was verified according to the measured data.Based on the verification, the tidal current field of the sea area was simulated, and the hydrodynamic model data was provided for oil spill model.Then the prediction of the influence caused by the oil leak accidents was carried out on the basis of MIKE21 SA module.The results show that the wind conditions factors has a great impact to oil film trajectory.The oil film trajectory may be very different from each other in different stages of the tidal cycle.%首先建立了瓯江口海区平面二维潮流数学模型,根据现场实测资料对该数学模型进行验证.在此基础上对该海区的潮流场进行模拟,为溢油模型提供水动力基础数据,然后利用MIKE21 SA溢油模型对溢油泄露事故进行影响预测.研究结果表明,风的条件因素对油膜漂移轨迹的影响较大.在潮周期的不同阶段发生溢油事故时,溢油油膜漂移轨迹可能完全不同.
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