房地产周期波动的系统动力学模型

摘要

This paper founds a system dynamics model of real estate market,and then gets a mathematic equation that describes the real estate cycle using real estate price as indicator variable.The real estate cycle of china is studied by time series theory on the basis of this equation.Our study shows that there is only one inherent cycle in Chinese real estate market and its length is 3.4 years.The concept of the inherent drive process and the inherent restrain process of Chinese real estate market are put forward and their features are analyzed.The relation of the two processes and the macro-control policies for real estate market are also analyzed.%构建了一个房地产市场的系统动力学模型,由此得到了一个以房价为指示变量的描述房地产周期波动的数学方程,在此基础上利用时间序列理论对我国房地产市场的周期波动做了实证研究。结果表明,我国房地产市场系统内在的波动呈现出单一固有周期的特点,该周期的长度为3.4年,并提出了我国房地产市场的内部驱动过程和内部抑制过程的概念,分析了它们的特点及其与宏观调控房地产市场之间的联系。