2005~2014年安徽石台县肺结核病流行特征及时空聚集分析

摘要

Objective To understand the spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis(TB) in Shitai County of Anhui Province, China. Methods Case data of TB were sourced from the disease surveillance infor⁃mation reporting system, and analyzed using software of SPSS(version 20), SaTScan(version 9.3) and ArcGIS (version 10.2). Results A total of 1 297 TB cases were reported from 2005 to 2014 in Shitai County. The annu⁃al average morbidity rate of TB was 127.82 cases in 100 000 population, and the prevalence was higher in male than female and increased with ages. Highest prevalence was found in population over 75 years(339.37 cases per 100 000 population), and farmers accounted for 84.30% of the total cases. TB prevalence was not associated with seasons, yet was differently distributed in towns and villages. The highest prevalence was in Dayan town (167.56 cases per 100 000 population). Temporal-spatial clustering analysis indicated two spatial and temporal clusters, in which one serious cluster was involved in Dingxiang, Xiaohe, Xianyu, Jitan and Dayan areas . Con⁃clusion The burden of TB appears still high in Shitai County, where indicates spatial and temporal distribu⁃tion. The findings suggest that TB prevention and control work must be targeted at the focus population and critical areas.%目的：描述石台县肺结核病流行状况，探讨肺结核病的时空分布特征。方法肺结核病数据资料均来源于结核病管理信息系统，采用SPSS 20、SaTScan 9.3和ArcGIS 10.2软件进行数据分析。结果石台县2005~2014年报告肺结核病病例1297例，年平均患病率为127.82/10万，男性患病率高于女性，肺结核患病率随年龄增加呈上升趋势，75岁以上组患病率最高为339.37/10万。农民占总病例数的84.30%，患病无明显的季节变化，各乡镇的年平均患病率存在统计学差异，年平均患病率最高的乡镇为大演乡（167.56/10万）。时空聚集分析共检测到2个时空聚集区，其中一类聚集区为丁香镇、小河镇、仙寓镇、矶滩乡和大演乡。结论石台县肺结核病流行水平仍较高，时空上存在聚集，应该继续加强重点人群和重点地区防控工作。