高速公路事故清理时间影响因素分析

摘要

交通事故是导致高速公路延误的一个主要因素,同时也降低了道路通行能力、车辆以及人员的安全性,甚至有可能导致二次事故发生.对此,相关部门已开始制定一些事故管理方案以降低或者消除事故影响并最大限度地增加道路通行能力和车辆行驶安全性.应密歇根交通部要求对底特律市高速公路网事故清理时间影响因素进行分析,基于交通流数据、道路几何特征及大量的事故数据,建立了参数化危险持续时间模型.所建立的四个模型分别基于不同的概率分布.结果表明,四个模型的性能大体相似,但是相对于其他分布,log-logistic分布更适合于事故清理时间分析.对事故清理时间影响显著的因素有:事故发生的时间、路段交通特性和几何特性,以及事故特征.%Traffic incidents are the primary cause of delay in urban settings,reducing capacity and creating risks for both motorists and incident response personnel.As incident duration increases,the risk of secondary incidents or crashes also becomes a problem.In response to these issues,many communities have initiated incident management programs aimed at detecting,responding to,and clearing incidents in order to restore freeways to full capacity as quickly and safely as possible.This study involved the development of fully parametric hazard duration models to examine those factors impacting the time required by the Michigan Department of Transportation' s Freeway Courtesy Patrol to clear incidents that occurred on the freeway network in metropolitan Detroit.These models were developed using traffic flow data,roadway geometry information,and an extensive incident database.Four fully parametric hazard duration models are developed,each assuming a different underlying probability distribution for the hazard function.In general,each modeling framework provided similar results,though a log-logistic distribution is shown to provide a better fit for the incident clearance data in comparison to other distributions.Various factors were found to significantly affect incident clearance time,including the time of day and time of year at which the incident occurred,the geometric and traffic characteristics of the freeway segment,and the characteristics of the incident.