基于SARIMA模型的北京地铁进站客流量预测

摘要

Based on the inbound traffic data of Beijing subway from May 2013 to July 2013, this paper analyzes and summarizes the fluctuation of Beijing subway inbound traffic data from weekly cycle. In the process of modeling, the seasonal time series (SARIMA) model is used. Using the model to predict the traffic flow in Beijing subway, the forecast results can accurately describe the change trend of the traffic flow in Beijing subway station, the average error is 0.3%. The result shows that the model is suitable for the prediction of the traffic flow in the Beijing subway. Based on the forecast model results, further analysis of the characteristics of the entering passenger flow volume is analyzed. And the reference suggestions are provided for the further optimization of the layout of the station facilities, the flow line of the organization and the efficient and safe operation of the subway.%通过对北京地铁2013年5月~7月的进站客流量数据进行详细分析,总结北京地铁进站客流量以周为周期的波动规律,选用季节时间序列(SARIMA)模型对北京地铁进站客流量进行时间序列建模.利用符合要求的模型对北京地铁进站客流量进行预测,预测结果能够较准确地描述北京地铁进站客流量的变化趋势,平均误差为0.3%.说明此模型适用于地铁进站客流量的短时预测,基于预测结果进一步分析北京地铁进站客流量的特点,为进一步优化进站设施布置、组织进站流线、高效安全的地铁运营组织提供参考建议.