基于北京地铁6个换乘站客流高峰期乘客对上行方向步行楼梯和自动扶梯的选择行为调查数据，采用灰色关联法计算乘客选择行为影响因素的重要度并排序。利用模糊数学理论建立乘客的选择行为模型，并分析乘客选择行为与相关影响因素的变化规律。研究表明，楼梯高度、扶梯前排队人数、乘客携带行李情况为影响乘客选择行为的重要因素。本文建立的模型可较好地刻画乘客的选择行为，模型计算结果与实际数据较吻合。此外，扶梯前排队人数少于25人时，乘客选择楼梯的概率较小，受其他因素影响小；超过25人后，乘客选择楼梯概率随排队人数的增加显著增加，且乘客负重、楼梯高度越小，影响越明显。不同负重乘客选择楼梯的概率随楼梯高度的变化规律一致，并随楼梯高度的增加近似呈线性下降。%Based on the pedestrian behavior data of six transfer stations in the peak hour in Beijing, the importance degree of factors affecting pedestrian choice is calculated by gray correlation method. The probability of pedestrian choosing stairway is modeled and analyzed by fuzzy theory. The result shows that, the height of the stairway, queuing number before escalator and luggage are significant factors affecting pedestrians’choice. Fuzzy theory can effectively reflect pedestrian choice behavior in Beijing urban rail transit. Furthermore, when the queuing length before escalator is less than 25, the probability of choosing stairway is small and little affected by other factors. While the queuing length before escalator is more than 25, the probability of passengers choosing stairway increases significantly, and the smaller the load and height is, the impact by queuing length is more obvious. Passengers with different loads have the same regular pattern while stairway height changes and the probability of choosing stairway monotonically decrease while stairway height increases.
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